Altarum developed a system of models to project and compare supply and demand for clinicians by specialty in the United States from 2010 to 2030 for the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis at the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) Bureau of Health Professions (BHPr).
The Clinician Specialty Supply Model and Clinician Specialty Demand Model were built upon existing HRSA physician models, but for the first time integrate projections for physicians, physician assistants, nurse practitioners, certified nurse midwives, and certified registered nurse anesthetists. The new Supply Demand Integrator compares and analyzes projected gaps in supply and demand by specialty and models the impact of potential system adjustments to address these gaps.
The models are implemented as standalone software tools that allow the user to vary numerous inputs and parameters, including examining the impact of innovative models of health care delivery, such as medical homes, on clinician demand, or testing assumptions about the training pipeline or retirement rates on clinician supply.
The models were run under a range of input values to produce projections of supply and demand and assessments of the adequacy of the U.S. clinician supply by specialty under various scenarios.